Poll chances of Kushboo from Thousand Lights (Chennai) - H Raja again from Karaikudi - Vanathi v/s Kamal

BJP first list of 6 candidates include Kushboo Sundar from Thousand Lights in Chennai, H Raja again from Karaikudi, BJP Women's Wing Vanathi Srinivasan from Coimbatore ( South). K Annamalai IPS ,BJP State VP will enter political fray in Arvakurichi and State President L Ganesan from Dharapuram. BJP Youth Wing President Vinoj P Selvam is to stand in Harbour ( Chennai). Of these Coimbatore and Karaikudi will see BJP v/s Congress.

Kushboo who did ground work for Triplicane was shifted out to Thousand Lights, in Chennai itself. As Stalin's son Udhaynidhi was fielded in the DMK stronghold, ADMK decided to fight  the seat. Instead it handed over Thousand Lights that it contested several times and lost to stalwarts like Stalin . After Stalin shifted in 2011 to Kolathur, ADMK won  . In 2016, it lost again to DMK.

Last election, MDMK and PMK contested separately and got around 5% and 2% vote share. Now MDMK is with DMK and PMK with ADMK. The victory margin share in 2016 was 6.20%.

DMK candidate is Dr. Ezhilan who works in Kauvery Hospital, Chennai. His father was Deputy Chief State Planning Commission who drafted the manifesto of DMK. Ezhilan is a known face of DMK in TV debates and especially in the anti- NEET stir. ADMK leaders say that their party has a solid vote base of  37-40% in the constituency. 

If Kushboo can like their firebrand Valarmathi who won in 2011, swing the lower income groups and especially the women using her star charisma, Ezhilan will lose. DMK says that ADMK ministry through Corporation evicted slums that were pro DMK to ensure a victory. This however led to a backlash as other squatters and slums have grouped against ADMK . How much the ADMK takes the fight in Thousand Lights seriously will decide Kushboo's victory chances is the general feeling.

H Raja won Karaikudi Assembly way back in 2001. After that he has lost all polls and including a shot at Lok Sabha ( Sivaganga). In 2011, Raja won against the TMC candidate. Before and after, it has been a battle between Dravidian parties and the Congress. in 2011, ADMK staged a massive victory routing INC K Ramasamy by 20,000 votes. In 2016, KR struck back by wresting the seat with 18,000 margin. H Raja can take solace that the INC has  not put KR again.

Kamal says that the previous LS poll numbers ( 3.7%) that his party MNM bagged was not the only reason for him to stand in Coimbatore ( South). He says those numbers need not hold good. Then MNM was a new entrant and today it could be more. He said in the interview to TOI that his idea was not to get 10% vote share and be a player but to be a game changer.

As LS poll voting reflects differently from  State Polls, in 2016 Assembly poll, the battle was with INC and ADMK. INC lost by 17419 votes. The INC candidate Mayura is fielded again and this time BJP's Vanathi stands again with ADMK support.

In 2016, a Third Front of DMDK- TMC- PWF was in the fray. The CPM from this front polled 7248 votes in South seat and BJP got 33113 votes. Now PMK-TMC is in ADMK , Left - MDMK is with DMK front. DMDK votes will not go to ADMK - BJP. Vanathi polled 33,113 votes and add to this the ADMK votes of 59,000 and you have a winner. INC with DMK got 42,369 votes and add a margin of 7000 votes and still you are behind.

Kamal has to  split vertically the ADMK- BJP - INC- DMK votes- close to 1.5 lakh votes to romp home. Assuming that 3.7% of votes in Coimbatore (South) got in Lok Sabha poll is intact and were anti BJP ( also means ADMK) , it does not measure up to a victory. Only by  adding to this the new first time voters not inclined to any political party, disorientation due to absence of Jayalalithaa to lead ADMK,  anti- incumbency factor  and the thrill of electing a cinema icon to Assembly can see Kamal walk up the State Assembly Hall.