Monday, May 3, 2021

What we told you about Kamal Haasan poll chances in Coimbatore ( March 14)


 As LS poll voting reflects differently from  State Polls, in 2016 Assembly poll, the battle was with INC and ADMK. INC lost by 17419 votes. The INC candidate Mayura is fielded again and this time BJP's Vanathi stands again with ADMK support.

In 2016, a Third Front of DMDK- TMC- PWF was in the fray. The CPM from this front polled 7248 votes in South seat and BJP got 33113 votes. Now PMK-TMC is in ADMK , Left - MDMK is with DMK front. DMDK votes will not go to ADMK - BJP. Vanathi polled 33,113 votes and add to this the ADMK votes of 59,000 and you have a winner. INC with DMK got 42,369 votes and add a margin of 7000 votes and still you are behind.

Kamal has to  split vertically the ADMK- BJP - INC- DMK votes- close to 1.5 lakh votes to romp home. Assuming that 3.7% of votes in Coimbatore (South) got in Lok Sabha poll is intact and were anti BJP ( also means ADMK) , it does not measure up to a victory. Only by  adding to this the new first time voters not inclined to any political party, disorientation due to absence of Jayalalithaa to lead ADMK,  anti- incumbency factor  and the thrill of electing a cinema icon to Assembly can see Kamal walk up the State Assembly Hall.

excerpts from our post ; https://southfilmy.blogspot.com/2021/03/poll-chances-of-kushboo-from-thousand.html

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