Kanyakumari Lok Sabha - Assembly poll results analyzed

Chennai, May5 :  Voters of Kanyakumari vote out Suresh Rajan of DMK ,who would have minister in the State Cabinet if elected , and reject Lok Sabha  candidate of BJP who  would be a Cabinet minister once again in Modi ministry. Surprise does not stop here. They elect an AIADMK candidate in Kanyakumar Assembly and BJP man in Nagercoil constituency, which forms bulk of Lok Sabha voters but vote for a Congress man as MP who will sit in Opposition benches.

Usually, the belief is that voters think differently when voting for State and Lok Sabha polls. Also the  past voting patterns have shown that Tamil Nadu electorate plumps for  ruling party candidate in a by-poll. The first belief comes wrong. Nagercoil and Kanyakumari constituencies that form the biggest chunk of voters in the Kanyakumari Lok Sabha constituency vote for AIADMK- BJP.  Suresh Rajan of DMK who won always bucked any wave against his party and   remained the `eternal’ favourite of the voters of the District Capital was bundled out. The humiliation was that he lost not to AIADMK man but to BJP’S lesser known Gandhi. In the same pattern, voters plumped for Thalaival Sundaram of AIADMK and booted out DMK’s Austin. No surprise as this seat is considered a two leaves bastion as it won seven times from here.

Going by the trend for voting for ruling party, Pon Radhakrishnan who is seeking re-election on a BJP ticket should have won hands down. In 2019 Lok Sabha poll, there was a belief that Congress and allies were coming back to power in Delhi. Tamil Nadu  voted for DMK- Congress in a massive way and Ponnar lost to Vasanthkumar . He cried foul and blamed it on the DMK Goebbels. As Union Minister, he used MP funds to help the constituency and the Highways ministry to build four lane expressway, flyovers  and started groundwork for an airport . All this was washed away as fishermen felt that the container port coming up at Kovalam ( not the beach in Kerala’s Thiruvanthapiram) would uproot them from the land that their forefather’s made their home. Kovalam International Container Transshipment Terminal (KICTT) has led to many protest groups to emerge and BJP is citing the fact that all these groups are led by Christians has not cut much ice with other castes.

The developmental works helped BJP to get Nagercoil but Ponnar lost his opportunity to be Union Minister again. Though Ponnar says that new site Kovalam has no villages in the 14 km radius of the proposed port, NGO’s show proof of  villages in the region and they being reclassified as only hamlets to get environmental clearance.  The 100 yr old St Ignatius church in Kovalam too falls in this 15 kn radius of the zone which has to have no residents., The KICTT project should have been given a  burial like AIADMK did  to Adani run Kattukapulli port expansion in North Chennai. This would have given a new birth to Ponnar and BJP.

 

Did the DMK-Left cross vote for BJP to defeat Kamal Haasan in Coimbatore ?

 Chennai, May4 : The defeat of Kamal Haasan in Coimbatore is said to be the cross voting by DMK- Left parties in favour of BJP. Sources say that on polling day and feedback from cadres, it was evident that the fight will ultimately be between BJP and Kamal Haasan. The INC backed by DMK- Left was in position to take on the AIADMK- BJP and even romp home but the entry of Kamal Haasan upset this calculations. The urban electorate that would have plumped for Congress and the blue collared for Left in Coimbatore seemed to be influenced by the actor and his party  

The Left cadres had a grouse as the actor had slammed CPM boss Yechury for not agreeing to a political alliance and dubbing him as a person not in tune with the present times. DMK cadres were fuming over the insensitive comment on wheelchair politics - reference to Late Karunanidhi,

The only time Coimbatore bucked the  trend of  being part of AIADMK fortress of West Tamil Nadu was in the 2019 LS poll when it elected a Left candidate,  Seeing the writing on the , DMK- Left cadres were asked to divert a sizeable/numbers in each booth to the BJP  said a source. On the polling day, DMK found that Kamal was garnering more than expected and BJP would lose if it's votes were not diverted in big numbers, revealed a party manager.

Predictably the counting trends moved on lines of Kamal v/s INC's Mayura and then moved to MNM v/s BJP. The actor kept  a slender lead till 14th round where he had 1148 votes lead. The coming booths too should keep this lead for the actor. The coming booths that went for counting reversed the trend as these areas were the ones where DMK- Left cross voted for BJP, pointed out the campaigner.

The outcome ended with Kamal losing to Vanathi by 1300 odd votes. This according to the source is lesser than the 3000 votes got under NOTA in 2016 State poll. The source pointed out that it was the DMK that had the numbers to swing the outcome and the CPM with a negligible number went along.

The  actor lost by a meagre 1300 votes against  93,000 votes  in the AIADMK+ BJP kitty ( as per 2016 poll results) and a cross voting by DMK whose ally INC in 2016 got  42,369 votes ,  has rattled the political camps .

Many advised Kamal to pitch for Mylapore or Velachery for many reasons. Primary both the seats are urban and have a good number of Brahmins and educated IT professional - first time voters. These areas also has many NGO and other groups that would whip up a campaign for Kamal. 

Kamal felt that the Brahmin tag will stick to him, if he wins from these areas and would affect his atheist  belief.  Secondly, the grass root organisational skill of both Dravidian parties in Chennai cannot be matched by MNM. It was  felt that Star charisma will not cut across  party lines in the Capital. Above all, the voter turnout in Chennai was very poor and for a fledgling party this meant trouble.

When everybody predicted DMK sweep we gave a different look ( April 21)

 The Western heartland of State seems to have gone a big way in pushing up the numbers for EPS and team ,said the report.

Those in the know of things revealed that EPS has been communicated about this and has brought cheer to the AIADMK top echelons. The report says that the Prasanth report that predicts a 180 seats for DMK combine is far too much of the actual numbers. The South Districts voting seems to have gone in favour of DMK combine and the AMMK- MNM- TMK- have created a divide of votes that would have gone to AIADMK.

The PMK is the weakest ally but still it is not that it will draw a blank as said by DMK circles and it has to a great extent got Vanniyar votes rallied behind them citing the consolidation of Thevars and other OBC against them.

The report however has made it clear that BJP need not draw any solace from this since in most of the seats it is in for a drubbing. Unlike the DMK in last State poll which made a mistake by giving 40 odd seats to Congress , the AIADMK has given many seats to BJP that it would not have won on two leaves symbol. The report might set off a revolt against BJP State President for accepting seats that it did not have any base.

full report; https://southfilmy.blogspot.com/2021/04/central-intelligence-report-says-eps.html

What we told you about Kamal Haasan poll chances in Coimbatore ( March 14)

 As LS poll voting reflects differently from  State Polls, in 2016 Assembly poll, the battle was with INC and ADMK. INC lost by 17419 votes. The INC candidate Mayura is fielded again and this time BJP's Vanathi stands again with ADMK support.

In 2016, a Third Front of DMDK- TMC- PWF was in the fray. The CPM from this front polled 7248 votes in South seat and BJP got 33113 votes. Now PMK-TMC is in ADMK , Left - MDMK is with DMK front. DMDK votes will not go to ADMK - BJP. Vanathi polled 33,113 votes and add to this the ADMK votes of 59,000 and you have a winner. INC with DMK got 42,369 votes and add a margin of 7000 votes and still you are behind.

Kamal has to  split vertically the ADMK- BJP - INC- DMK votes- close to 1.5 lakh votes to romp home. Assuming that 3.7% of votes in Coimbatore (South) got in Lok Sabha poll is intact and were anti BJP ( also means ADMK) , it does not measure up to a victory. Only by  adding to this the new first time voters not inclined to any political party, disorientation due to absence of Jayalalithaa to lead ADMK,  anti- incumbency factor  and the thrill of electing a cinema icon to Assembly can see Kamal walk up the State Assembly Hall.

excerpts from our post ; https://southfilmy.blogspot.com/2021/03/poll-chances-of-kushboo-from-thousand.html

Kadaisi Echarikkai short film bags 6 International Awards

 

Chennai, May 2 (2021): Kadaisi Echarikkai a 23 short film bagged a total of 6 awards at the 2020 Club Mini Movie Festival, including Best Picture, Best Comedian at the Seychelles National Film Festival, and Best Debut Director at the Golden Sparrow International Film Festival.Leading cinematographer Velraj released the first look poster of the film and leading  producer Kalaipuli S Thanu released the teaser. The trailer of the film was released by director and Naam Tamil Party chief coordinator Seeman. The songs were released by leading composers GV Prakash and Justin Prabhakaran. K Bhagyaraj congratulated the director for his achievement.

The film written and directed by Sukumar Ganesan is based on human eating habits, environmental disorders, etc.film stars Sun TV star Doubt Senthil. He is accompanied by Nellai Siva and Amirthalingam.

Cast - Artists Profile:

Cast: Dowd Senthil, Nellai Siva, Amirthalingam.
Production: Aravindan V Entertainment w. Srinivasan
Writing - Direction: Sukumar Ganesan
Songs: Sukumar Ganesan
Music: AIS Nawfal Raja
Cinematography: V Chandrasekhar
Editing: Deepak, Vijay Shankar, M. Millionaire
Studio: Knock Studio
Public Relations: S Shankar

Bigg Boss 3 Malayalam escapes curbs - South TV producers have enough footage to tide over Covid 19 lockdown

Chennai, May2, 3021: As  film- TV  shooting grind to a halt,  producers in South languages are not worried as they have enough footage to last till June end. The only ones hit are the reality shows of Kannada -Malayalam channels since  Karnataka and Kerala has banned shoots. Bigg Boss 3 Malayalam shot in Chennai is nearing finish and  likely to escape any restrictions, since the State Govt is not likely to ban indoor shoots, said a source.

The new elected TN ministry is expected to not enforce total lockdown in film - TV industry. Shoots within studios and shooting houses with SOP and no restriction on post production work is expected to be in force. Shooting in public places will be banned.

In Tamil, the TV channels taking lessons from past, had put in place a system of having not less than 20 episodes bank. As major Tamil film actors had decided to not take part in shooting especially as the figures are rising in Chennai, post production studios are busy.

Rajinikanth Annaatthe shoot in Ramoji Film City at Hyderabad is nearing close with Nayanthara joining the crew. As many Tollywood actors tested positive and shootings been cancelled, the shooting of Annaatthe going on has puzzled many.

OTT platforms are flooded with film producers offering their films. See related post ; https://southfilmy.blogspot.com/2021/05/now-bigg-boss-tamil-contestants-back-to.html

Now Bigg Boss Tamil contestants back to compete for BB Jodigal title On Star Vijay

 Chennai, May 1,2021; Good News for Bigg Boss Tamil Fans- Shivani – Som Shekar, Gabby – Aajeedh, Anitha – Shariq, Nisha – Dhadi Balaji, Vanitha – Suresh Chakravarthy,Samyuktha – Jiththan Ramesh, Julie – Sendrayan,Fathima Babu – Mohan Vaidhya are all set for proving themselves on the dancing arena. BB JODIGAL  launches on 02 May 2021,Sunday at 8 pm only on STAR VIJAY. 

Eminent judges for the show are actors Ramya Krishnan and Nakul. The show will be hosted by Erode Magesh & Dheena, There would be two most popular faces of the Tamil film industry to judge the show. The judges will score the performances based on the drama and emotion that the pairs bring out through their danceperformance. Each week there will elimination process based on the performances.Eventually top scorers i.e. four pairs will battle in the grand finale for the coveted title of BB Jodigal.

Gabby is not new to the dance reality show arena as she already participated in the 'Jodi Number One Season 6' on Vijay TV and won the title as well.